Sunday, June 22, 2025

ONE AND UNDONE

Donald Trump is currently considering the use of our bunker-buster bomb to take out Iran's uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, which is buried 300 feet beneath a mountain near Qom. (I believe this is an updated version of the weapon referred to as the MOAB [Mother Of All Bombs] during the search for Osama Bin Laden, when the caves of Tora Bora were clobbered.)

The mission would be a difficult one, involving B2 stealth bombers, fighter jets for cover, AWACS, and refueling aircraft, and would probably require multiple sorties to deliver enough of the big-ass bombs to get the job done.

But could that be it? One and done? Over? Complete? No comeback?

Very unlikely.

Iran would almost certainly launch missiles at US troops in Iraq, no doubt killing hundreds of them. The only way to achieve "one and done" status would be to not respond to that attack. Just let it go. Tell the Iranians they were getting a free one.

But remind them that any further aggression against our forces (in the region or around the world) would result in massive retaliatory attacks all over Iran.

Would that work?

Maybe, but what are the chances Trump could stay the course? Grit his teeth and take the hit? Approximately nil. The allure of tit for tat would be overwhelming. I mean, come on: He would look weak for not hitting back. And looking weak is not his favorite look. (I think he'd almost rather look bald.)

Trump says he's giving Iran two weeks to come to the bargaining table.

Will they respond favorably?

Unlikely. Iran says it won't engage in talks as long as Israel is bombing their country. If Israel wants the US to help out by supplying the big bombs, all it has to do is keep on hitting Iran until time runs out.

I'm pretty sure they'd be willing to do that.

So, is there any way forward?

Hardly. In fact, things may be even more complicated.

It's been reported Iran thinks having a nuclear weapon could be an effective deterrent to keep Israel from attacking their country.

Unfortunately, Israel will continue to attack as long as it looks like Iran is close to getting that nuclear deterrent.

Loggerheads!

Crazy solution: We could guarantee Iran that if they are willing to give up the dream of the magic device, any future attacks from Israel would be answered with force by the US. Or, more likely, Israel would be informed of such an eventuality and be warned away from strikes in Iran.

Sounds pretty shaky.

But hey, consider this even crazier solution: We give the Iranians thirty or forty nukes.

(Israel is thought to have 300 warheads.)

That way, both sides would have the bomb: Mutually Assured Destruction, baby!

It would be too late for Israel to head off the development of an Iranian nuke. Both countries would be forced to let cooler heads prevail.

One problem: Iran may be sitting on divine permission to obliterate Israel.

Too bad, really: Among the humans, the supply of cooler heads is dangerously limited.

(Seriously, people. How the hell did we get this far?)

[Obviously, events have trespassed on the validity of this post, Trump having made his decision to deploy bunker busters in Iran. We now await the Iranian response.]

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