CROSSING BORDERS

Putin's invasion of Ukraine continues apace.

It appears he wants three things: 1) a change in the Ukrainian constitution that prohibits the country from ever joining NATO or the EU; 2) recognition that Crimea belongs to Russia forever; and 3) acknowledgment of the independence of several provinces in eastern Ukraine that are home to ethnic Russians.

Not entirely outrageous demands, but was war the only way to make it happen?

Russia is clearly paranoid about the political makeup of countries on her border. In the past, invading armies have emerged from those countries and created havoc in Russia. In WW2, some 23 million people (soldiers and civilians) were killed when Nazi Germany came across the border.

Putin apparently thinks NATO or EU countries are chomping at the bit to invade Mother Russia. An understandable paranoia. Perhaps he could simply say, "Come across our border with your military and we will nuke your capital."

After all, nuclear weapons have almost no value except as a deterrence. The whole point of the Cold War strategy called MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) was: "Nuke us and we will nuke you back."

Admittedly, using the threat of nukes to deter a conventional military action is pushing the boundary a bit. It all depends on whether you can make the threat credible. And define the provoking action to be substantial.

But it's tricky. Nuclear bullies might stir up unpredictable responses.

As for Crimea, apparently it used to belong to Russia, but was handed over to Ukraine by the former Soviet Union. Maybe it can stay in Russian hands. Perhaps a sum of money paid to Ukraine would not be out of line here.

Or a partitioning of the region.

Partitioning might also work in the eastern provinces, with more money headed Ukraine's way.

Or, as I pointed out some time ago, maybe Putin should have invaded Ukraine with moving vans instead of tanks.

If ethnic Russians want to emigrate to Russia, who is standing in their way? It certainly sounds like a deal could be made here. Maybe some land changes hands, maybe not. People can be relocated according to their wishes. Money for housing could be allocated.

Folks should calm down and start boxing up their crap.

On the other hand, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has make all simple solutions vastly more complicated. So why did Putin do it this way?

Two likely reasons.

One, he expected a lightning fast war, leaving little time for opposition and outrage to build. Two, if he waited until Ukraine was actually admitted to NATO, coming across the border as he did would have been an act of war against the US. And that sounds way more dangerous.

Or have I got this completely wrong?

I am, after all, human.

The wankers who get most things wrong ...and never find out.