FALSE CONFIDENCE

The main problem with humans is that they can't tell the difference between knowing something and thinking they know something. These two states of mental activity are literally identical inside the human skull.

This condition gives rise to all manner of death and destruction. Folks move forward decisively because they know they're doing the right thing.

Heads get busted, blood gets spilled, women and children get ravished, valuable property is transferred willy-nilly from one head-strong person to another.

And everything makes perfect sense. Folks know exactly what they're doing and why they're doing it.

People have confidence. It's the natural result of knowing what you're about.

And it's all based on nonsense.

Human beings are so good at knowing stuff (including the unknowable), they need take no time to examine their knowledge. Why would you study something you already know?

People step forward with confidence to act in whatever way they deem appropriate. It's literally a no-brainer.

The main function of that hunk of gray matter is to come up with plausible reasons why it's okay to do what you already "know" you should be doing.

Fortunately, the brain edits the world to make sure you encounter no nasty surprises. Should "truth" rear its ugly head, there's a good chance you'll never see it.

And out of sight, out of mind. You don't have to grapple with inconvenient reality if you can't see it standing there in front of you.

Success breeds confidence, and vice versa. And neither needs to be real to work its magic on your happy life.

Take Donald J. Trump, for instance. He thinks he'll be a president who can get things done. He "knows" how to handle any number of the country's problems, knows it ahead of time. Not that he's dealt with similar stuff, but because he's dealt with some things before—with occasional success.

Unfortunately, his solutions are theoretical at best. Nobody really knows what they can accomplish in government until they try to do something. At which point they usually find the system is designed to make sure they can do nothing.

Outsiders think they can wave all that aside. And yes, it's kind of fun to watch 'em try.

But this is a real country, in a real world, with real people and real blood. That's bound to drain some of the fun out of the game.

A supremely confident man quite naturally persuades others to have confidence in him. Even if the confident man is not actually a confidence-man, enormous damage can be done as a result of this basic misunderstanding.

Which brings me to my axiom about politics: No one who seeks public office should be allowed to hold public office.

It's a simple matter of public safety.